Climate Crossroads:
Futures for People & Nature in Central Belize
Navigating change, shaping resilient futures
Project Summary
Climate Crossroads is a collaborative initiative led by the University of Belize Environmental Research Institute (UB-ERI). It is one of five projects worldwide funded by the Swiss Re Foundation. The project focuses on central Belize, where climate change, land-use pressures, and community livelihoods intersect. By combining scientific modelling with participatory approaches, Climate Crossroads explores how future climate and land-use scenarios may affect people, ecosystems, and the services that sustain them. The project empowers communities to envision and prepare for resilient futures, while linking local priorities with national climate and development goals.
This initiative brings science and communities together through participatory mapping and visioning, empowering people in central Belize to shape resilient futures for both livelihoods and ecosystems
Project Components
Scenario Modelling with InVEST
The project uses the InVEST tool to model how different climate and land-use futures may affect ecosystem services critical to livelihoods in central Belize.
Participatory Mapping
Engagement with 21 communities through mapping workshops documents local knowledge, values, and priorities tied to the surrounding landscapes.
Visioning with the Three Horizons Approach
A futures-thinking framework is applied to support communities in envisioning preferred pathways for resilience and identifying practical actions to achieve them.
Methodological Approach
The project integrates spatial ecosystem service modelling and participatory methods. InVEST provides a scientific basis for assessing how different climate and land-use scenarios, while participatory mapping captures local knowledge and cultural values tied to ecosystems. Visioning exercises using the Three Horizons approach then enable communities to define preferred futures and identify concrete steps toward achieving them. This combined methodology bridges rigorous analysis with community-led insight, ensuring outcomes are both evidence-based and grounded in lived realities.
Project Impact
For Communities
Greater awareness of climate risks and ecosystem dependencies, supported by tools such as maps and scenarios that help guide decisions about livelihoods and land use. Inclusive engagement ensures that local voices contribute to shaping solutions.
For Ecosystems
Improved understanding of how different futures could affect forests, rivers, and biodiversity, enabling actions that sustain ecosystem services and maintain ecological resilience.
For Policy and Planning
Evidence that bridges local perspectives with national priorities, helping planners and decision-makers design strategies that are both scientifically informed and socially relevant.
Project Outputs
The project will generate scientific and community-driven outputs that support both local action and national planning:
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Water Resource Models: Models focused on water resources, assessing quick flow and baseflow under different climate and land-use scenarios in central Belize.
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Research Papers: Publications covering both the modelling results and insights from community characterization and participatory approaches.
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Digitized Participatory Maps: Community maps from workshops digitized, integrating local knowledge on resource use, cultural values, and climate priorities for planning and decision-making
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Story Maps: Interactive, web-based story maps that combine scientific findings with community perspectives to communicate project results in an accessible and visually engaging way.
Workshops engage communities in documenting knowledge for climate and land-use planning
Partners and Funders
